Finding a bottom? As much art as science.

Using the AI model for market forecasting provides a scientific and data-driven approach, but there is still an essential element of human interpretation required for effective portfolio management. Much like a TV weatherman uses models to predict weather patterns, I leverage the AI model as a tool to develop market forecasts while applying years of study and observation of the underlying signals to interpret likely outcomes. In many ways, market forecasting is as much an art as it is a science.

Based on my interpretation of the signal data alongside the AI model, I believe we may be approaching a bottom for this pullback— which, for the Nasdaq, technically qualifies as a correction. The signal appears to be transitioning from a downtrend to an uptrend, and when combined with traditional market analysis, this suggests we could be finding a bottom. However, I am still watching for a reversal in the VIX as confirmation, which has not yet occurred. If and when that confirmation comes, I plan to execute my leveraged-long portfolio strategy to capitalize on the potential upside.

From a quantitative perspective, the model currently suggests a 70% probability of positive returns over the next seven days. Interestingly, the 14-day probability for DIA is lower at 55%, while SPY and QQQ remain elevated at 70% and 80%, respectively. These probabilities provide valuable context but must be assessed alongside broader market conditions.

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and my portfolio strategies may not align with your financial goals or risk tolerance. All investments carry inherent risks, including the potential loss of principal. Historical data and model-based projections are not guarantees of future performance. Please consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.