Wave Update: A Mature Ride Still in Motion
The current leveraged episode is now 24 trading days old, and the internal conditions that launched it in mid-September remain intact. The wave has not been without turbulence; a two-day dip early this week tested the stop conditions before both the momentum and trend measures recovered and resumed their upward path. That kind of brief consolidation mid-wave is not unexpected. The model stayed in position, the stop conditions were never triggered, and Friday’s close confirmed the recovery.
Since the episode began, the portfolio has returned approximately 6.4%, compared to roughly 2.7% for the S&P 500 over the same period. That spread reflects what leveraged participation in a healthy wave is designed to produce. The wave is maturing; episodes at this age tend to be in their later stages, and I am watching the conditions closely for signs the structure is fading. For now, they remain constructive, leverage stays active, and the model continues to hold its position.
In other exciting news, I’m working on a new dashboard feature to host on this site. It’s still in testing, but I’ve included a look at the wave portion below. More to come on this!
As of October 9, 2026:
Episode return (since mid-September): +6.4% (portfolio) vs. +2.7% (S&P 500)
Year-to-date portfolio: +30.2%
Year-to-date S&P 500: +13.8%
YTD alpha: +16.4 percentage points
Market analysis and this blog post were conducted and written with the assistance of AI analysis under human oversight.
The information provided here is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and my portfolio may not be appropriate for your financial goals or risk tolerance. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Historical data and market models are not indicative of future results. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.