A Weak Impulse; The Skipped Trough Matters

The model has been in a Bullish Continuation portfolio setup since June 15. The move was correct, and the portfolio has outperformed both benchmarks since the transition. But the advance has been thin from the start, exactly as flagged last week when I noted the corrective phase never fully reset before the move higher began.

The data since the transition continues to support that caution. The internal structure has shown limited conviction, consistent with an advance still working off a single geopolitical catalyst rather than a properly consolidated base.

Despite that, the portfolio has outperformed both the S&P 500 and the EW4 benchmark since the transition. The growth-tilted allocation captured the early strength of the move, and the lead has held even as the underlying signal has weakened.

Given the pattern of deterioration in the signal this week, a Defensive transition next week would not surprise me.

Where Things Stand

• ROQ Portfolio (inception to date): +17.20%

• S&P 500: +9.06%

• EW4 Passive Benchmark: +13.32%

• Alpha vs SPY: +8.14pp

Market analysis and this blog post were conducted and written with the assistance of AI analysis under human oversight.

The information provided here is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and my portfolio may not be appropriate for your financial goals or risk tolerance. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Historical data and market models are not indicative of future results. Please consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.