Transitioning to Bullish Continuation, With a Caveat

The model transitions to Bullish Continuation at Monday's open. The signal confirmed over two consecutive days, the breadth indicator cleared a key structural level for the first time this cycle, and the Defensive posture that the human override put in place last week did its job, cushioning Wednesday's sharp selloff before the market reversed sharply on geopolitical news Thursday and Friday.

The transition is called for per the ruleset, however this is not a clean wave setup.

The corrective phase that just ended never fully reset internally. The prior corrective cycle (the one that set up May's leveraged episode) produced a deep, sustained trough before recovering. This one didn't. The signal barely reached mid-range (about halfway down the wave slope) before the geopolitical catalyst pulled the market back up. That's not the internal structure that typically precedes a strong, sustained advance.

The BC allocation is the right posture given the signal. But the wave didn't fully consolidate, which means this advance may have less fuel behind it than the last one.

Where Things Stand

• ROQ Portfolio (inception to date): +15.57%

• S&P 500: +8.33%

• EW4 Passive Benchmark: +11.98%

• Alpha vs SPY: +7.24pp

Market analysis and this blog post were conducted and written with the assistance of AI analysis under human oversight.

The information provided here is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and my portfolio may not be appropriate for your financial goals or risk tolerance. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Historical data and market models are not indicative of future results. Please consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.