Research Portfolio Outperforms Mightily
This wave of the market cycle has been a notable success for the ROQ theory. The signal set up a Bullish Entry (meaning 2.8× leverage applied to the indexes) on July 28. The fascinating thing is that my human intuition wasn't fully onboard with the call at the time; it felt a little early. But this is a research portfolio, so I let the system and the rules run as they're designed.
It turns out, the model was correct.
Since the July 28 entry the research portfolio has significantly outpaced every benchmark I track. The leveraged position is up over 15% against the S&P 500's 5% gain over the same period, more than 10 percentage points of outperformance from a single signal. Year to date the picture is equally strong:
ROQ Portfolio: +28.4%
S&P 500: +13.5%
EW4 Equal Weight Passive: +16.6%
Alpha vs SPY: +14.9pp
If this were a managed portfolio, I'd exercise a little human judgment at this point and turn off the leverage. The signal is near the crest of the wave, and there's no need to be greedy. The research portfolio could coast to the end of the year and still be a huge success.
But the rules are the rules. The stop hasn't triggered, both indicators are still rising, and VIX is calm. So the leverage stays on — and we find out together what the model does next.
Looking forward, the ROQ research portfolio goes into next week with 2.8× leverage still applied. I'm anticipating a switch to either no-leverage or Defensive sometime next week as this wave completes.
Market analysis and this blog post were conducted and written with the assistance of AI analysis under human oversight.
The information provided here is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and my portfolio may not be appropriate for your financial goals or risk tolerance. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Historical data and market models are not indicative of future results. Please consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.
